Museveni Holds Strong Lead in Uganda’s 2026 Presidential Race Amid Opposition Rejection and Post-Election Turmoil

As Uganda’s Electoral Commission (EC) unveiled its fifth round of provisional results on January 16, 2026, President Yoweri Museveni held a substantial lead in the presidential election, amassing 6,851,406 votes (73.72% of valid ballots tallied). Opposition leader Robert Kyagulanyi (Bobi Wine) followed with 2,105,921 votes (22.66%), while dismissing the figures as fraudulent amid escalating post-election violence that has claimed at least 12 lives.

EC Chairperson Justice Simon Byabakama reported that tallies from 35,491 polling stations (69.95% of the total 50,739) had been processed, with counting complete at 41,177 stations (81.15%). From 21,649,067 registered voters, 9,524,709 ballots were cast, yielding a 44% turnout. Valid votes stood at 9,293,812, with 230,897 invalid (2.42%) and 32,760 spoilt.

Trailing candidates included Nathan Nandala Mafabi (175,331 votes, 1.89%), Mugisha Muntu (49,259, 0.53%), Bulira Frank Kabinga (39,488, 0.42%), Robert Kasibante (28,080, 0.30%), Mubarak Munyagwa (25,480, 0.27%), and Joseph Mabirizi (18,847, 0.20%).

Byabakama emphasized this was the fifth update since polls closed on January 15, with the next set due at 9:00 AM on January 17 and final results anticipated by 5:00 PM that day, in line with legal mandates.

The releases coincided with nationwide unrest, including clashes in Kampala areas like Makindye, Makindye Ssabagabo, Busabala, Ndeeba, Gangu, and Najjanankumbi. Police spokesperson Luke Owoyesigyire confirmed deployments to quell disturbances, noting operations were ongoing without a full casualty report.

Kampala appeared subdued on January 16, with empty streets and closed businesses during the extended election holiday, reinforced by intensified security and aerial monitoring to prevent further escalation.

Parliamentary outcomes revealed setbacks for the opposition, with figures like NUP Secretary General David Lewis Rubongoya losing to NRM candidates in key areas.

Bobi Wine outright repudiated the EC’s data, citing rigging and voter suppression, and claimed his Magere home had been under military blockade since polling ended. “Ignore the FAKE results,” he stated. “The people of Uganda will have the final say.”

NUP spokesperson Joel Ssenyonyi alleged armed forces breached Wine’s residence that evening amid an internet blackout, urging Museveni to uphold the law after 40 years in power. Journalists were reportedly barred from the site by 3:00 PM as security tightened.

The EC upheld the election as “successful and generally peaceful,” downplaying biometric delays at some stations (resolved via manual voting) as insufficient for annulment.

With final tallies looming on January 17, the atmosphere remains volatile, marked by arrests, clashes, and political strain. Other candidates have not yet responded to the provisional figures.